converge2eu

What do the different numbers mean?

• % of EU average: shows the current level of a specific indicator compared with the EU average.
• Year-on-year rate of change: shows how the gap to the EU changed compared with the previous year in percentage points.
• Rate of change over the past 5 years: shows the average annual pace of change over the last five years, capturing whether the indicator has been improving or worsening recently.
• Years to EU: shows how long it would take for a country to reach the EU average for the given indicator, assuming the recent pace of change continues.

How we calculate the numbers for individual indicators?

% of EU Average: calculated as the native value of a certain indicator in a certain country, compared with the corresponding EU average.

Example: If the average wage in Serbia is 1,150 EUR and the average wage in the EU is 3,000 EUR, then Serbia’s wage level is 38% of the EU average (1,150 / 3,000). For indicators where lower values mean better outcomes (unemployment, child mortality, etc.), the calculation is reversed so that a higher percentage always indicates better performance.

Example: If the unemployment rate in Kosovo is 11% and in the EU 6%, Kosovo’s relative level is 55% of the EU average (6 / 11).

Rate of change over the past 5 years: calculated as the simple average of the year-on-year changes in the indicator measured as % of the EU average, over the last five years.

Example: If public health spending in North Macedonia, measured as a share of the EU average, changed by –0.4, +7.2, –2.7, –2.1 and +0.2 p.p., the 5-year rate of change is +0.4 p.p.

Years to EU: calculated by comparing the remaining gap to the EU average with the speed of progress over the last five years. It shows how many years it would take to close the gap if recent trends continue.

Example: If Montenegro’s GDP per capita is 55% of the EU average (a gap of 45 p.p.) and it has been catching up by 0.9 p.p. per year, it would take about 50 years to reach the EU level.

How we calculate the numbers for the pillar/area averages?

% of EU Average: calculated as the simple average of all indicators in the pillar, each expressed as a percentage of the EU average.

Example: If Albania’s five environment indicators are 50%, 55%, 60%, 65% and 70% of the EU average, the overall Environment pillar stands at 60% of the EU average.

Rate of change over the past 5 years: calculated as the average of the year-on-year changes in the overall pillar’s value measured as percentage of the EU average, over the last five years.

Example: If Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Education pillar changed by +0.5, +5.6, +0.2, +0.8 and +1.0 p.p., the 5-year rate of change is +1.6 p.p.

Years to EU: calculated by comparing the remaining gap to the EU average for the overall pillar, with the pace of progress over the last five years.

Example: If Serbia’s Digitalisation pillar stands at 98% of the EU average and has been improving by 1.0 p.p. per year, it would take 2 years to reach the EU level.

What does it mean when an indicator is ‘Converged’ or ‘Diverging’?

Converged: an indicator is considered converged if its value as a percentage of the EU average is above 100%. This means the country has reached or exceeded the EU average in that area.

Example: If government spending on health in Montenegro is 105% of the EU average (6.9% of GDP vs 6.5%), Montenegro is considered converged.

Diverging: an indicator is considered diverging if its average change over the past five years (measured as % of the EU average) is negative. This means the country has been moving further away from the EU average.

Example: If road density in North Macedonia, expressed as % of the EU average, has been declining by 0.4 p.p. per year, North Macedonia is diverging.

A categorization of “Not Possible” may be used when a convergence calculation cannot take place due to missing data.

How we treat missing values?

Missing values between years: when data for an indicator is missing for one or more intermediate years, we substitute the missing value with the last available one for that country (in native units).

Example: If North Macedonia is missing values for Internet access in 2022 and 2023, we use the 2021 value (83.7%) for calculations.

Missing values for the last year: if at least 4 of the 6 Western Balkan countries have data for the most recent year, we include that year and use previous values for the others. If fewer than 4 countries have data, we exclude that year from EU comparisons.

Example: For tertiary education (2023), Albania and Montenegro were missing data, but since 4 others had it, we included 2023 and used 2022 values for the missing countries. By contrast, if only one country had data (e.g. 2024 for enterprises with websites), 2024 is excluded.

Missing values at the beginning: if data starts late, no EU-relative or pillar calculations are done for earlier missing years.

Example: For average pensions, Kosovo data starts from 2015 — calculations begin from 2015 onward.

How we calculate pillar/area values for 2024 when some indicators are missing: we use the last available year’s value for any missing indicators.

Example: To calculate the % of EU average for Education in 2024:

• 2022 values for Public spending on education and Average PISA scores
• 2023 values for Tertiary enrolment, Tertiary attainment and Labour force with advanced education
• 2024 value for the NEET rate