To assess how different EU integration options may influence the pace of convergence across the eight areas, we simulate projections under four alternative scenarios:

1. Full EU membership Western Balkan economies join the EU immediately, with full rights and obligations, including access to the EU budget.
2. EU budget transfers Western Balkan economies obtain full access to the EU budget and receive transfers as if they were member states, but without formal membership.
3. EU single market access Western Balkan economies gain full access to the EU single market, without other elements of membership such as institutional alignment or budget transfers.
4. Institutional reforms Western Balkan economies undertake reforms equivalent to those required of EU member states, without membership or transfers.

To simulate the economic effects of these scenarios, we draw on the post-accession experiences of Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia – three Balkan countries that joined the EU in the 2000s and are broadly comparable to the Western Balkans in terms of institutional development, historical legacy, and regional context.

We simulate one indicator from each of the eight pillars:

• Economy: GDP per capita at PPS
• Social: income share of the bottom 20%
• Health: life expectancy
• Education: tertiary enrolment
• Institutions: control of corruption
• Environment: energy intensity of the economy
• Digitalisation: ICT exports
• Infrastructure: road density

The results we present show the number of years to EU under the baseline (status-quo) scenario as well as the four EU accession scenarios. They can be seen here:

The methodology for the modelling and the simulations can be found here: